Local heterogeneities in population growth and decline. A spatial analysis for Italian municipalities

Abstract

The unequal demographic dynamics at municipality level lead to a progressive fragility of the territory and its social system. The municipalities in demographic malaise tend to be increasingly dusty in size and peripheral in localization, and their local spatial aggregation increased over time. To try to identify the signs of the population variation, we estimated a spatial regression model. It results that the variation of population is significant affected by the value it assumes in the neighbouring municipalities, thus confirming the spatial nature of the phenomenon and indicating the existence of a spatial diffusion process. The presence of schools in the municipality emerges as a crucial factor for the increase/decrease of the population.