A dynamic model to value the economic impact and the economic sustainability of tourism in a resort area

Abstract

The systemic approach in studying tourism is firmly accepted in literature because of the complexity of the topic both from the supply side (the heterogeneity of goods and services making the tourism product) and the demand side (not every operator in the tourism network chain has a direct contact with tourists). To face this complexity the Input-Output analysis, theorized by Wassily Leontief, is widely used in empirical studies of tourism. Yet, in spite of such a diffusion and importance in tourism literature, the Input-Output models have several limits. In order to overcome some of these limits, the static Input-Output analysis is translated into a dynamic one by making use of System Dynamics (SD). Moreover, looking at the inflow of tourists in the resort area as a result of the structure of the system (prices, quantities, quality of the tourism product, etc), the dynamic model shows itself to be suitable to analyse the following aspects: 1. Will the structures available in the resort area be able to support the inflow of tourists in the next years or will they work as a constraint to its economic development (local sustainability)? 2. Up to which extent will the inflow of tourism in the resort area translate into an increase in the local economy (production, labour and value added) or an increase in imports (economic impact)?