Bivariate Distributed Lag Models for the analysis of temperature-by-pollutant interaction effect on mortality.

Abstract

This paper introduces Bivariate Distributed Lags Models (BDLMs) to investigate synergic effect of temperature and airborne particles on mortality. These models seem particulary attractive since they allow to model interactions between such environmental variables accounting for possible delayed effects. A B-spline framework is used to approximate the coefficient surface of the temperature-by-pollutant interaction and possible alternatives are also discussed. A case study of mortality time-series data in Palermo, Italy, is presented to illustrate the model.