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ANGELA CANDELA

ESTIMATION OF FLOOD INUNDATION PROBABILITIES USING GLOBAL HAZARD INDEXES BASED ON HYDRODYNAMIC VARIABLES

  • Autori: ARONICA, GT; FABIO, P; CANDELA, A; SANTORO, M.
  • Anno di pubblicazione: 2010
  • Tipologia: eedings
  • Parole Chiave: Flood map, uncertainty, MonteCarlo approach, GLUE methodology, hazard index.
  • OA Link: http://hdl.handle.net/10447/56993

Abstract

In this paper a new procedure to derive flood hazard maps incorporating uncertainty concepts is presented. A Monte Carlo approach has been used to sample the hydrological input to a two-dimensional hydraulic model and the GLUE methodology has been applied in order to account for parameter uncertainty. Global hazard indexes based on hydrodynamic variables (i.e., water depth and flow velocities) have been considered. The procedure has been tested on a flood prone area located in the southern part of Sicily, Italy. Three hazard maps have been obtained and then compared.