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GIADA ADELFIO

Hawkes processes on networks for crime data

  • Autori: Nicoletta D'Angelo; David Payares; Giada Adelfio; Jorge Mateu
  • Anno di pubblicazione: 2022
  • Tipologia: Contributo in atti di convegno pubblicato in volume
  • OA Link: http://hdl.handle.net/10447/558760

Abstract

Motivated by the analysis of crime data in Bucaramanga (Colombia), we propose a spatio-temporal Hawkes point process model adapted to events living on linear networks. We first consider a non-parametric modelling strategy, for both the background and the triggering components, and then we include a parametric estimation of the background based on covariates, and a non-parametric one of the triggering effects. Our network model outperforms a planar version, improving the fitting of the self-exciting point process model.