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GIADA ADELFIO

Space-time forecasting of seismic events in Chile

Abstract

The aim of this work is to study the seismicity in Chile using the ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock sequences) space-time approach. The proposed ETAS model is estimated using a semi-parametric technique taking into account the parametric and nonparametric components corresponding to the triggered and background seismicity respectively. The model is then used to predict the temporal and spatial intensity of events for some areas of Chile where recent big earthquakes (with magnitude greater then 8.0M) happened.