Spatial distribution of rainfall trends in Sicily (1921–2000)

Abstract

The feared global climate change could have important effects on various environmental variables including rainfall in many countries around the world. Changes in precipitation regime directly affect water resources management, agriculture, hydrology and ecosystems. For this reason it is important to investigate the changes in the spatial and temporal rainfall pattern in order to improve water management strategies. In this study a non-parametric statistical method (Mann–Kendall rank correlation method) is employed in order to verify the existenceof trend in annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall and the distribution of the rainfall during the year. This test is applied to about 250 rain gauge stations in Sicily (Italy) after a series of procedures finalized to the estimation of missing records and to the verification of data consistency. In order to understand the regional pattern of precipitation in Sicily, the detected trends are spatially interpolated using spatial analysis techniques in a GIS environment. The results show the existence of a generalized negative trend for the entire region.