Can statistics be helpful in detecting electoral fraud?

Abstract

This paper presents a case study of electoral fraud in the Italian Overseas Constituencies during the 2018 Italian Election. The study leverages publicly available electoral data obtained from the Central Office for Foreign Circumscriptions at the Rome Court of Appeal to conduct an analysis of voting preferences expressed for the party "Unione Sudamericana Emigrati Italiani" (USEI) and evaluates statistical anomalies in the preferences expressed for the candidate Cario Adriano. The study employs a comprehensive four-step methodology that includes numerical analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, validation, and outlier detection analysis. The results suggest that there is evidence of electoral fraud in the polling stations of Buenos Aires, with specific anomalies identified in the preferences expressed for Cario Adriano.