Strategic Adaptability as a Dynamic Capability: Forecasting, Foresight, and Cognitive Debiasing in Uncertain Hospitality Environments

Abstract

Purpose: This study develops a conceptual framework explaining how forecasting, foresight, and adaptive learning can be integrated as a dynamic capability to support strategic decision-making under uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on dynamic capabilities and behavioural strategy perspectives, it synthesizes predictive and interpretive logics into an Adaptive Strategy Framework that explicitly incorporates cognitive constraints, particularly anchoring bias. Findings: Forecasting is conceptualized as a predictive logic enabling organizational sensing; foresight as an interpretive logic that expands strategic sensemaking through scenario exploration; and adaptation as a transformative capability translating anticipatory intelligence into action. The framework highlights how anchoring bias constrains learning and how feedback loops and foresight practices mitigate cognitive rigidity. Contributions and implications: The study advances dynamic capabilities research by integrating behavioural constraints and contributes to hospitality scholarship by offering a cognitively informed view of strategic adaptability. Managerially, it guides hospitality firms in combining analytics and foresight to enhance flexibility and resilience. Originality/value: The paper offers an original synthesis integrating forecasting, foresight, and cognitive debiasing within a unified adaptive strategy architecture.