Earthquake strikes twice: electoral (dis)advantage in municipalities without economic recovery aid

Abstract

Is there electoral punishment for local politicians considered by their citizens to have performed poorly during emergencies? This is studied in the Italian case, where a law officially listing earthquake-affected municipalities also de-facto prevents those left-out from receiving major aid. Electoral results after the four major earthquakes affecting the country over the past three decades are analysed through a difference-in-differences approach. Results indicate that mayors of municipalities severely affected by earthquakes and not getting financial support are electorally punished in the next election. The mechanisms are investigated alongside the influence of the local context.