Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part I): Induced Alterations on Climate Forcings and Hydrological Processes

Abstract

In the last years, the Mediterranean basin has been widely recognized as one of the most vulnerable areas in the world to climate change; because of its high concentration of urban and industrial settlements, it is one of the most impacted areas of the world in terms of water scarcity. The present paper aims at reviewing the main observed and predicted effects of climate change on hydrological processes directly related to water availability in the Mediterranean Basin, mainly focusing on the last ten years of research. While an in-depth discussion about possible future water scarcity problem in the Mediterranean area and the sources of uncertainty affecting future climate projections and impact assessments is presented in a companion paper (Noto et al., 2022), this study highlights how most of the more recent studies for the Mediterranean region are concordant and recognize a general increasing future trajectory in both the mean and extreme values of air temperatures. On the contrary, there is much less agreement about the intensity and directions of future projections for other variables, such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff, whose changes are less evident and variable in space.