A long-term analysis for changes in temperature regime over Sicily

Abstract

During the last ten years, global temperature records have been continuously broken, with each year ranking among the hottest ever recorded. In this context, the 2024 is particularly significant since it marked the first year where the global average temperature surpassed 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels (Tollefson, 2025), established as the critical limit for avoiding severe climate disasters by the Paris Agreement. Human activities have played, continue to play, and will probably play, a dominant role in driving global warming. The impacts of this changes are evident in many areas of the world, with increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and the destruction natural ecosystems. The Mediterranean area has been identified as a “hotspot” for global warming, being particularly responsive to rising temperatures (Lionello and Scarascia, 2018). Several studies have shown that this area is warming at a faster rate than the global average, and this trend will probably continue also in the future. This is expected to have profound implications for the region’s climate system, affecting precipitation patterns, evapotranspiration rates, and, consequently, water availability. Many areas within the Mediterranean basin are already experiencing a growing water scarcity, which in turn threatens agricultural productivity, biodiversity, and so on. The combination of rising temperatures and declining water availability is likely to drive an increasing process of aridification, with severe environmental, economic, and social impacts for millions of people. In this context, it is essential to move from a macro-regional spatial perspective to a more detailed, in order to better understand how different areas within the Mediterranean basin are responding to global warming. This helps to identify the most vulnerable areas and develop specific adaptation strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change.