An a priori prediction model of response to peginterferon plus ribavirin dual therapy in naïve patients with genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C
- Authors: Andriulli, A.; Nardi, A.; Di Marco, V.; Ippolito, A.; Gavrila, C.; Aghemo, A.; Di Paolo, D.; Squadrito, G.; Grassi, E.; Calvaruso, V.; Valvano, M.; Brancaccio, G.; Craxi, A.; Angelico, M.
- Publication year: 2014
- Type: Articolo in rivista (Articolo in rivista)
- Key words: Chronic hepatitis; HCV infection; Peg-interferon and ribavirin treatment; Predictors of sustained virological response, rapid virological response;
- OA Link: http://hdl.handle.net/10447/99288
Abstract
Background: Aim was to select naïve patients with genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C having a high probability of response to Peg-interferon. +. ribavirin therapy. Methods: In 1073 patients (derivation cohort), predictors of rapid and sustained virological response were identified by logistic analysis; regression coefficients were used to generate prediction models for sustained virological response. Probabilities at baseline and treatment week 4 were utilized to develop a decision rule to select patients with high likelihood of response. The model was then validated in 423 patients (validation cohort). Results: In the derivation cohort, 257 achieved rapid virological response and 818 did not, with sustained virological response rates of 80.2% and 25.4%, respectively; interleukin-28B polymorphisms, fibrosis staging, gamma-glutamyl transferase, and viral load predicted sustained virological response. Assuming a <30% sustained virological response probability for not recommending Peg-interfe...