Relationship Between Extreme Rainfall and Surface Temperature in Sicily (Italy)

Abstract

The study of the relationship between extreme rainfall events and surface temperature represents an important issue in hydrology and meteorology and it could be of capital importance for evaluating the effect of global warming on future precipitation. Various approaches have been tested across different parts of the world, and, in many cases, it has been observed an intensification of precipitation with increasing temperature consistently with the thermodynamic Clausius-Clapeyron relation (CC-rate of 6-7% °C-1), according to which a warmer atmosphere is capable of holding more moisture. Nevertheless, in different locations, the scaling rate between temperature and extreme precipitation has resulted significantly different with respect to the CC-rate, in some cases sensibly higher (super-CC) and in other relevantly lower (sub-CC). In this work, an analysis of the scaling relationship between sub-daily extreme rainfall events and surface temperature is carried out, using data from a large number of rain and temperature gauges across Sicily (Italy). Results highlight the relevant importance of some modeling choices and, particularly, of rainfall duration, for this type of analysis in semi-arid region. An overall sub-CC scaling rate has been detected for most part of the region.