Quantification of the uncertainty contributions for a complex water quality model

Abstract

The quantification of uncertainty in integrated urban drainage water quality models is of paramount interest. Indeed, the assessment of the reliability of the model results for complex water quality models is useful for understanding the significance of the results. However, the state of knowledge regarding uncertainties in urban drainage models is poor. In the case of integrated urban drainage water quality models, due to the fact that integrated approaches are basically a cascade of sub-models (simulating sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and receiving water body), the uncertainty produced in one sub-model propagates to the following ones depending on the model structure, the estimation of parameters and the availability and uncertainty of measurements in the different parts of the system. Uncertainty basically propagates throughout a chain of models in which simulation output from upstream models is transferred to the downstream ones as input. The overall uncertainty can differ from the simple sum of uncertainties generated in each sub-model, depending on well-known uncertainty accumulation problems. The paper presents the quantification of the uncertainty contributions for an integrated urban drainage model developed in previous studies. Particularly, the different parts of the quantifiable uncertainty have been assessed and compared by means of the variance decomposition concept. The integrated model and the methodology for the uncertainty decomposition have been applied to a complex integrated catchment: the Nocella basin (Italy). The results showed that the variance decomposition approach can be a powerful tool for uncertainty analysis but the possible correlation among uncertainty sources should be considered because it can greatly affect the analysis.