Sensitivity analysis to quantify uncertainty in Life Cycle Assessment: The case study of an Italian tile

Abstract

The results of a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) study can be affected by several uncertainty sources, mainly due to the methodological choices, the initial assumptions, i.e. allocation rules, system boundaries and impact assessment methods, and the quality of the available data. Then, the experts should estimate the extent of the above-mentioned sources of uncertainty for improving the reliability and the representativeness of the obtained eco-profiles. To estimate the uncertainty is necessary to obtain reliable, transparent and representative LCA results and to correctly support decision-makers in the selection of different product or process options. The following paper starts from a LCA study of the so-called “Sicilian tiles”, which are typical roof tiles employed in restoring old buildings of the Mediterranean area. The authors identify the most relevant sources of uncertainty in the LCA study. Then a sensitivity analysis is performed to estimate the effects on the tile eco-profile of different secondary input data and of the chosen methods for the environmental impact assessment. The results show that, in some cases, significant differences in the energy and environmental indices can be obtained, pointing out the need of developing sensitivity analysis for strengthening the reliability of the obtained eco-profiles.